Quake-prone Istanbul not at heightened risk: expert

A screen displays latest earthquakes on a map of turkey at the Kandilli Observatory鈥檚 Regional Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring Center in Istanbul on Feb. 23,2023. (AFP)
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ISTANBUL: Fears of another major earthquake have been rekindled in Istanbul since the February 6 disaster that hit Turkiye and Syria, but a prominent Turkish seismologist has reassured the risk 鈥渉asn鈥檛 increased.鈥�
鈥淭he risk hasn鈥檛 increased because we are talking about completely different systems,鈥� Dogan Kalafat, the director of the Kandilli Observatory鈥檚 Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring Center in Istanbul, told AFP.
Turkiye鈥檚 most populated city is situated near the North Anatolian Fault while the recent 7.8-magnitude quake that killed 43,500 people occurred along another fault in the country鈥檚 southeast, Kalafat explained.
Still, the 16 million residents of Istanbul, a city that spreads over two continents and has seen skyscrapers mushroom in recent years, are wondering if they鈥檙e ready for the 鈥淏ig One.鈥�
鈥淚鈥檇 like to say it, but sadly, it鈥檚 a very big city with too many poorly constructed buildings,鈥� said Kalafat, who has denounced using low-quality cement and building on 鈥渟oft soils.鈥�
While waiting for a large-scale quake, 鈥渨e must make good use of the time. We must build earthquake-proof houses on solid soil. It鈥檚 the most important precaution to take,鈥� the seismologist stressed.
At the observatory, seismologists take turns every eight hours watching a series of computer screens monitoring potential tremors.
In front of them, on a wall at least five meters (16 feet) tall, a giant screen provides real-time readings from 260 seismic stations across the country.
鈥淣ine thousand aftershocks have taken place in Turkiye since February 6,鈥� which is more than 鈥渟even or eight times normal,鈥� Kalafat said.
On one of the desks, a laminated map shows the North Anatolian Fault, which crosses the Sea of Marmara, only 鈥�15 to 17 kilometers鈥� from the southern shores of Istanbul, Kalafat said.
In 2001, two years after a 7.4-magnitude quake left 17,000 people dead in northwest Turkiye, Kalafat calculated a 65 percent probability that a quake with a magnitude above 7 would occur before 2030 in the same region 鈥� which includes Istanbul.
The risk climbed to 75 percent in 50 years and 95 percent in 90 years.
鈥淭hese statistics are still relevant,鈥� said Kalafat, adding: 鈥渆ven with the technology of today, it is impossible to predict an earthquake.鈥�
鈥淲e can indicate, with a certain margin of error, where an earthquake can occur and what magnitude it can be, but we can鈥檛 know when it will occur,鈥� he said.
The Kandilli Observatory has developed an early warning system 鈥渂ut Istanbul is too close to the fault line鈥� for a system to be effective, Kalafat said.
On one of the desks, sitting between two screens, is a black telephone with two red labels with the public disaster management agency鈥檚 acronym, allowing scientists to send an alert for a major earthquake.
The early warning could win 鈥渁 maximum of seven or eight seconds鈥� 鈥� not enough time to allow inhabitants to get to safety.
In comparison, the telephonic warning system in Japan鈥檚 Tohoku region, which was struck by a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, buys the public 45 seconds.
鈥淭here, you can send a message warning citizens, but we don鈥檛 have this possibility here,鈥� he said.